One approval. One signed action.
Tap a side on the Telegram card and the money flow moves to your private DM, then to the official wallet flow. You connect a wallet once and approve the immutable MarketFactory once. After that, you sign each action as an exact contract call reviewed in your wallet.
The factory pulls USDC only from the wallet that signed. Before anything moves, it verifies the destination is the genuine vault or market for this system and checks the token. The transfer and booking happen atomically, so the factory never holds a balance.
Before launch, USDC waits in a trusted vault under a record bound to the signer. If both sides have at least $1, the crossing action can launch the market clone and seed its pool. If the gate is never met, anyone can trigger the refund, but the contract can return it only to the wallet that funded it.
sign in wallet
The pool: everyone against everyone
A young market is pari-mutuel — the system racetracks have used for 150 years. You don't trade against a price. You put money on a side, and when the market resolves, the winners split the entire pot in proportion to their stakes (minus a 2% fee).
That means the "odds" you see are live, not locked. Every new entry on your side dilutes your share of the pot; every entry against you fattens it. Your final terms are set by the pool ratio at the moment the market locks — not when you participate.
payout = your stakewinning pool × (total pot − 2% fee)
Try it. Drag the pools and watch what a $100 YES entry would pay — computed with the contract's own floor-rounded pro-rata math.
Graduation: the pot becomes a market
If the pool reaches the market's graduation threshold — currently $1,000, fixed per market when it opens — while the implied price sits between 10¢ and 90¢, the market graduates — in place, in one atomic transaction. Three things happen at the frozen clearing price p = YES pool ÷ total:
Your stake → shares
YES staker: s ÷ p shares-worth
NO staker: s ÷ (1−p) shares-worth
Worth exactly what your participation was worth the moment the pot froze. Nobody gains or loses at graduation itself.
The φ carve seeds the curve
x · y = k, opened at price p
15% of the pot becomes the market's own liquidity. It is not taken — it returns to participants at resolution through the waterfall.
The honest trade-off: graduation crystallizes your odds at the clearing price. Money that arrives later can no longer dilute you — but it can no longer fatten your payout either. You swap exposure to future flow for the ability to sell your position any time before close. That trade-off is the product.
The curve: x·y=k until close
After graduation the market quotes a real price from a constant-product market maker — the same mechanism behind Uniswap, specialized for YES/NO shares that each redeem at $1 if right, $0 if wrong.
Buying YES pushes the YES price up along the curve; every trade pays a 2% fee, and 30% of every fee flows back to the original participants — compensation for the φ they lent to the pool.
Be honest with yourself about depth: a curve seeded with $150 is
thin. The simulator below shows the real slippage — a $100 market
order visibly moves the price. The signed wallet call includes
minSharesOut and a deadline; the transaction reverts
instead of filling beyond those terms.
Sells are signed by your wallet only. The bot cannot sell, shrink, or move your position — it never could, at any stage.
Settlement & the waterfall
When the verdict lands, every winning share redeems for exactly $1. Then the loan comes home: the market's own liquidity (the φ carve) is cashed out at outcome value and poured into the waterfall pot, which is split among the winning side's original participants, pro-rata by their graduation stakes — and the participants' 30% share of all trade fees pays out alongside it, to both sides' original participants, win or lose.
This winner-weighting has a beautiful consequence, verified to the cent: a graduated market where nobody traded pays winners exactly what the pari-mutuel pot would have paid (gross of fee). Graduation is economically invisible unless someone actually used the curve.
The UNDETERMINED case is different. If the evidence cannot support a Yes or No verdict, every share — YES or NO — redeems at $0.50, plus a stake-weighted waterfall slice. On a lopsided market this is not a refund: at p = 0.60, a $300 YES participant gets back ~$257.50 and a $250 NO participant ~$303.13 — value moves from the majority to the minority side. Before graduation, UNDETERMINED refunds stakes in full. After it, you hold shares, and shares is what gets valued.
at outcome value
trade fees
split pro-rata by graduation stake — the loan returns to the lenders
If the bot disappears tomorrow
Deterministic services move the market through its life — locking, graduation, evidence handoff, and settlement. They are deliberately built with no power to invent destinations, and every stage has a public escape hatch on a timer that anyone can pull:
What the contracts prevent, by construction
- route your money to an unverified contract or a payout wallet other than yours
- change the claim wallet after a funded position is booked
- sell, shrink, or transfer your position
- fill a buy below the minimum shares or after the deadline baked into the wallet call
- keep your funds after death — every state has a public exit
What remains trusted: the evidence gateway must deliver the permitted sources and the GenLayer resolution path must return the verdict honestly and on time. Public hatches bound an unavailable service; they cannot prove that a bad verdict is truthful. Hatch delays are per-market parameters sealed into the market's commitment at birth — the values above are current defaults, and the contract caps every trading window at 400 days.
The simulator
A whole market life in your hands. Runs the contract's exact integer math — same rounding, same guards, same dust. Differentially tested against the real Solidity contract: 436 on-chain assertions across 20 replayed lifecycles, all exact.
ledger
participants
| who | in | position | out | P&L |
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